Forecasting the Remittances of the Overseas Thai Workers

01 - Problems

  Thai workers' remittance income is one of the indicators of economic growth in Thailand as it is related to GDP. Therefore, forecasting the remittance income of Thai workers abroad will help create guidelines for the development of sending Thai workers to work abroad. It also increases the income of workers and income to the country in the future.

02 - Skills

Statistics, Machine Learning, Self taught learning, SPSS, R, E-views, Excel

03 - Process

• Collected data from the Bank of Thailand website. (Second Party Data)
• Explored data and literature review to find the good model for predicting and finding the model that best fits this data set, Therefore the result six model are Holt, Brown, Damp Exponential Smoothing, ARIMA (Box-Jenkins), Combined forecast base on regression and Combined forecast base on weight regression.
• Cleaned data and filtered missing values out, Total data 312 data set, split to train 300 data and test 12 data, then transform data using by Box-Cox transformation.
• Trained the six models explainable above using by SPSS program, then diagnostic checking using by Ljung-Box test (R). If the model doesn’t pass, drop it out. If the model passes, take it into combined forecast based on regression and based on the weight regression model.
• Checked diagnostic combined forecast using by Ljung-Box test (R). If the model doesn’t pass, drop it out. If the model passed, take it to evaluate the model.

All process in project